Sports Betting Strategies That Don’t Work

 

Sports Betting Strategies That Don’t Work

There are several betting systems out there that proclaim to have a secret recipe for foolproof winning. Of course, if they really worked then everyone would be rich and casinos and sportsbooks would be bankrupt. Let’s look at few classic betting systems that aren’t really as awesome as they say they are.

• Martingale System – In this system the bettor simply doubles the bet amount after any losing bet in an effort to recoup their money plus a small profit. An obvious problem with this is that any bad losing streak will require a huge amount of money just to get back to even.

As well, there aren’t many sportsbooks that would take bets sizes necessary to overcome such a betting system. Another problem is that this system relies on an actual even-money bet which is extremely rare since sportsbook’s charge a 5-10% commission on all bets.

• The Negative Progression System (a.k.a The d’Alambert System) – Similar to the Martingale system, with this one you are incrementally raising your bets by equal units after each loss and going back down to the base betting unit after each win.

It’s a more moderate version of the Martingale because instead of doubling your bet after a loss, you’re only increasing it by one unit.

Compared to the Martingale system which only requires your last bet to win, this system needs your overall winning percentage to out-number your losses.

• The Labouchere system – (a.k.a. The Cancellation System) – This system is also called the split Martingale system. First come up with a base betting unit. Then write down a common Labouchere sequence like 1-1-2-2-1-1. To choose your bet amount, take the first and last numbers from the sequence. In this example, you’d bet two units (1+1).

If you lose a bet, add the number of units you bet to the end of the sequence. When you win, cross out the first and last numbers in the sequence. Continue until all numbers in the sequence have been crossed out.

The truth is, none of these systems can guarantee a win, even if they promise to do just that. The biggest problems are that sportsbooks don’t offer true even-money bets, you don’t have an infinite bankroll to keep doubling your bet size and the sportsbook has maximum bet amounts to stop you from doubling forever even if your bankroll was unlimited.

As we explain in other parts of this guide, the best sports betting strategies are about solid research and analysis, not so-called “guaranteed winning” systems.

Using Sports Databases and Stats Sites to Discover Trends

One of the most important things both savvy punters and oddsmakers utilize is data and trend analysis software. These days there are several online options that offer these services for free or for a low fee. It takes a bit of work to learn to use them at first but once you learn how to use these tools they can be an absolute game-changer for your results.

Not only can you figure out how the most common trends are calculated and used, but you can also explore your own trend ideas and potentially find edges that have eluded the sportsbooks and other bettors.

You never know what you might find. Perhaps NHL road underdogs, after long homestands, who start their back up goalie in the first game of a back-to-back are much more likely to cover the puckline. It may seem random, but with data analysis tools you can find real trends that can help guide your bets.

Advanced Sports Betting Strategies

Now that we’ve covered some of the basics for sports betting strategy and looked at some of the dos and don’ts, let’s take a deeper look into more advanced betting strategies for specific sports.

NFL Betting Strategies

When you look at historical betting stats it’s pretty incredible how good the oddsmakers are.

For example, over the past 13 seasons the underdog has covered the spread 50.3% of the time. This stats is called ATS and stands for “against the spread”. It measures how teams perform against the point spread, not just against their opponents.

That is an incredible stat to ponder. It makes it seem that no matter what strategy you employ, your point spread bet is a coin toss. However, when combining the data with point totals, the number of underdog covers goes up to 53% when the over/under is 34 points or less. That extra three percent represents a massive difference for your bottom line so look for those opportunities.

One advanced strategy punters use at the start of a new NFL season is the Pythagorean wins strategy, which is a name you might remember from math class in school. Instead of calculating the largest side of a right-angle triangle, though, this method calculates a team’s performance from the previous year.

It’s clever because it doesn’t just look at the total wins. It takes into account the amount of points scored by a team and compares it to the number of points scored against them. Amazingly, from 1988 to 2004 the Super Bowl was won 11 out of 16 times by the team that had the highest Pythagorean wins stat, not just the most outright victories.

Instead of doing the math yourself, you can find the stats for all teams posted at the beginning of the season. You can also find free calculators online that will do the math for you.

This is just one example of a more advanced strategy used to wager on the NFL. For tons more, check out our comprehensive guide on how to bet on the NFL and don’t miss our compilation of the best NFL betting bonuses. If you’re not sure where you can bet on NFL then check if your state has legal betting on NFL.

NBA Betting Strategy

In basketball, one advanced strategy we really like is going against the grain and betting against the public.

This works especially well with point totals and teams that put up big numbers at home. The common bettor will remember how a team performs at home, how quick their pace of play is, how many points they give up to the opposition, and then simply bet the same way the next time that team plays at home.

Unfortunately for them, they aren’t realizing that the oddsmakers are pushing the line even higher since they know the majority of the betting public is taking the favorite. This means you can often get a great price betting the underdog or the under on totals in these spots.

This works especially well when both teams have had busy workloads or are on the tail end of a back-to-back.

For more advanced NBA betting strategies, read our full guide on how to bet on the NBA. Check if your state has legal NBA betting on our guide.

MLB Betting Strategy

Baseball is a stat-crazy sport which means there’s a lot of data to dig into for advanced bettors.

Pay close attention to the relationship between the over/under line and how much the underdog pays. Statistics have shown that when a total is higher (8.5 or more) and the game is likely to have a lot of scoring, it favors the underdog in terms of value and the likelihood of an upset. However, this is generally for underdogs of +150 or less who stand a fighting chance of pulling off the minor upset.

This is also a viable option when the underdog has lost their previous game and the public is swayed by a small sample size and the odds have increased.

For more on baseball betting strategy, check out our full guide on how to bet on the MLB. Check if your state has legal MLB betting.

NHL Betting Strategy

There are lots of reasons hockey is a great sport for more advanced betting strategies. It’s relatively low scoring, there are lots of games and lots of teams to choose from. There are also lots of edges for gamblers willing to put in the work.

One common example is that the betting public for hockey tends to put too much weight on home ice advantage. As such, even though since 2005 home teams have won nearly 55% of games, because of the odds the ROI over that same period was better for betting on the road teams.

The road team’s value gets even bigger when the majority of the public bets on the home team and pushes the moneyline odds even higher on the home side. This creates excellent value for those willing to bet on the road underdog. Statistically speaking the ideal road underdog to look for are ones paying +185 or less as they have historically had the most success winning on the road while having the highest return on investment.

For more hockey betting tips and strategies, read our full guide on how to bet on the NHL.

What is the Kelly Criterion?

The Kelly Criterion is a formula used to calculate how much to bet when the odds are in your favor. The math behind the Kelly Criterion is pretty complicated so we don’t blame you for using a free online calculator to work it out:

• (BP – Q)/B
• B = The decimal odds – 1
• P = The probability of success
• Q = The probability of failure – which equates to (1 – p)

Obviously, in sports betting, it is going to be difficult to know the precise probability of success or failure of an event. However, with research and solid deduction we can make some reasonable guesses and then apply the Kelly Criterion to see how much of our bankroll to bet.

Say, for example, that you think the chances of Rafael Nadal beating Roger Federer on Clay are 65:35, and the decimal odds available at your sportsbook are 1.70 for Nadal.

Plug those numbers into the formula to determine what percentage of your bankroll to wager.

• Original formula: (BP-Q)/B
• Our example: (0.7 * 0.65 – 0.35) / 0.7 = 0.15

Therefore the formula suggests a 15% stake on Rafael Nadal.

The Best Strategy? Make a Plan and Stick to it

There’s a litany of information out there on different types of sports betting strategies. Some are great quality while others might steer you far wide of your target. The bottom line is, the more you learn about ways to improve your understanding of the sport, teams, players and different kinds of wagers, the more tools you’ll add to your toolbox.

The information you gather along the way is really what matters most. As we stated above, it is best to be a master of one field than an average Joe across the board. Find your niche and then develop or employ strategies that work best for that sport and for the teams or players you know best. There’s no need to stretch yourself thin across lots of sports or even lots of teams within the same league.

If you’re one of the fortunate Americans living in a state with legalized gambling, be sure to check out our comprehensive list of the best sites available for betting including the best bonuses and deals to get you started.

If your state hasn’t legalized sports betting yet, don’t worry. Chances are it’s coming soon. In the meantime, you can spend your time studying and learning more about your favorite sports and teams so you’re ready when legal betting options arrive.

Risk-free betting offers are also a crucial decision-making point when it comes to deciding which sportsbook you want to open an account with. Risk-free betting offers can double the number of bets you can make with your first bet.